An Explanation of Krugman's Good Predictions

Below is Noah Smith's funny blog post on Krugman's predictions over the last seven years. The entire thing is pretty entertaining and worth reading, but I've pasted the punchline immediately below for the quick takeaway.

Noahpinion: KrugTron the Invincible

So how did Krugman know growth would be slow? He didn't (I hope) put his trust inReinhart and Rogoff's assertion that growth is always slow after financial crises. Maybe he just assumed that the underlying drivers of aggregate demand are sluggish, but I think Paulson's team could have done that just as easily.

No, I think Krugman's real secret weapon is something else: Like Voltron before him, he's borrowing heavily from Japan.

Economics can often use history as good source of data and prediction. Thomas Piketty's work has done similar work in turning to history for a broader perspective. This is why he considers himself much more a social scientist than anything else.