Showing posts with label Economic growth. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economic growth. Show all posts

Thursday, August 17, 2017

G11 - Week 1 - Day 2

In-class work
  1. Flashcard check
  2. Influences on Student Achievement
  3. Feedly
  4. Videos
    1. Scarcity, the Basic Economic Problem
At-home work
    1. Finish second half of The Circular Flow Model of a Market Economy
    2. Watch this for more information on The Basic Economic Problem
    3. Study for a short quiz on definitions and diagrams

From the blogosphere

average grade 5.83expected grade 5.55desired grade 6.47

Monday, February 6, 2017

G11 - Week 21 - Day 1

In-class work

  1. Marginal University Economic Growth
    1. The Idea Equation
  2. Economic Growth in the Short-run and Long-run
    1. Exercises 4-11 (p. 338-340 HL Only)
  3. Equity in the distribution of income
    1. The Lorenz Curve and Income Distribution
    2.  Quantifying Income Inequality part 1 - The Gini Coefficient (Index)
    3.  Quantifying Income Inequality part 2 - the 20/20 Ratio
      1. Exercises 1-3 (p. 350)
    4.  Different Tax Systems' Effects on Income Distribution (part 1)
    5. Different Tax Systems' Effects on Income Distribution (part 2)
      1. Exercise 7 (p. 360)
      2. Exercise 8-11 (p. 362 HL Only)
Ongoing Country Information
  1. Figure out unemployment rates
  2. Labor participation rates
  3. Causes of the above?
  4. What are the inflation rates?

Thursday, February 2, 2017

G11 - Week 20 - Day 1

In-class work

  1. Marginal University Economic Growth
    1. Exercises 1-3 (p. 336)
    2. TED Talk: How Ideas Trump Crises
    3. The Idea Equation
  2. From Tyler Cowen
    1. On Value, the Crusonia Plant, and “Wealth Plus”
      1. What is Cowen's basic argument?
      2. Do you agree with him? Why or why not?
      3. How would you value compenents of society?
        1. Unemployment
        2. Inflation
        3. Growth
        4. Rights
        5. Income distribution (to be learned next)
Ongoing Country Information
  1. Figure out unemployment rates
  2. Labor participation rates
  3. Causes of the above?
  4. What are the inflation rates?

Wednesday, January 25, 2017

G11 - Week 19 - Day 2

In-class work

  1. Marginal University Economic Growth
    1. The Solow Model and Ideas
    2. The Economics of Ideas
    3. Patents, Prizes, and Subsidies
      1. Exercises 1-3 (p. 336)
    4. TED Talk: How Ideas Trump Crises
    5. The Idea Equation
  2. From Tyler Cowen
    1. On Value, the Crusonia Plant, and “Wealth Plus”
Ongoing Country Information
  1. Figure out unemployment rates
  2. Labor participation rates
  3. Causes of the above?
  4. What are the inflation rates?

Currently Reading

Book - The Rise and Fall of American Growth

G11 - Week 19 - Day 1

In-class work

  1. Marginal University Economic Growth
    1. The Solow Model and the Steady State
    2. Human Capital and Conditional Convergence
    3. The Solow Model and Ideas
    4. The Economics of Ideas
    5. Patents, Prizes, and Subsidies
    6. TED Talk: How Ideas Trump Crises
    7. The Idea Equation
  2. From Tyler Cowen
    1. On Value, the Crusonia Plant, and “Wealth Plus”
Ongoing Country Information
  1. Figure out unemployment rates
  2. Labor participation rates
  3. Causes of the above?
  4. What are the inflation rates?

Currently Reading

Book - Don't Think of an Elephant

Thursday, January 19, 2017

G11 - Week 18 - Day 2

In-class work

  1. Phillips Curve questions?
  2. Questions for the comments
    1. How important is economic growth for an economy?
    2. How important is economic growth morally?
    3. Do you think it has increased or decreased in the past?
    4. Do you believe it will increase or decrease in the future?
    5. What are all the causes of economic growth you can think of?
  3. Economic Growth in the Short-run and Long-run
  4. Marginal University Economic Growth
    1. Introduction to the Solow Model
    2. Physical Capital and Diminishing Returns
    3. The Solow Model and the Steady State
    4. Human Capital and Conditional Convergence
    5. The Solow Model and Ideas
    6. The Economics of Ideas
    7. Patents, Prizes, and Subsidies
    8. TED Talk: How Ideas Trump Crises
    9. The Idea Equation
  5. From Tyler Cowen
    1. On Value, the Crusonia Plant, and “Wealth Plus”
Ongoing Country Information
  1. Figure out unemployment rates
  2. Labor participation rates
  3. Causes of the above?
  4. What are the inflation rates?

- Since 2015, the richest 1% has owned more wealth than the rest of the planet.
- Eight men now own the same amount of wealth as the poorest half of the world.
- Over the next 20 years, 500 people will hand over $2.1 trillion to their heirs a sum larger than the GDP of India, a country of 1.3 billion people
Book - Bourgeois Equality

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

G11 - Week 10 - Day 1

In-class work
  1. The Tragedy of the Commons as a Market Failure
  2. Visualizing the Tragedy of the Commons
    1. Exercises 4-6, page 140
    2. Exercises 7-10, page 143
  3. Asymmetric Information as a Market Failure - part 1 (HL Only)
  4. Asymmetric Information as a Market Failure part 2 (HL Only)
Upcoming
  1. Ch. 5-6 assessment on Thursday, October 20th
  2. Make sure to be reading news sources and collecting real-life examples of market failures 




Currently Reading

Other People's Money: The Real Business of Finance
The individualistic ethos of the era of financialisation has affected wealth transfer over time in other ways. The American economist Laurence Kotlikoff created the concept of ‘intergenerational accounting’ to describe the government’s transfer of wealth over time. 15 The journalist Tom Brokaw coined the phrase ‘the greatest generation’ to describe my parents and their contemporaries, who grew up during the Great Depression, fought in the Second World War and (in Europe) suffered privation in its aftermath. 16 Another author might term my generation of ‘baby boomers’, ‘the luckiest generation’ or perhaps just ‘the most selfish generation’. We have not only been successful— and perhaps this is to our credit— in enjoying a time without major armed conflict or deep economic depression; we have also been effective in transferring wealth from both past and future generations to ourselves. 

We reduced the debt we owed to our predecessors by rapid inflation. We promised ourselves generous state and occupational pensions, and then argued that the burden of providing them for subsequent generations could not be afforded. We sold assets that had been accumulated in the past, and would yield prospective benefits in the future, for our own current benefit, privatising state industries and monetising the goodwill in Goldman Sachs and Halifax Building Society. We let house prices and share prices rise to new highs in real terms, forcing our children to buy the nation’s assets from us at prices much higher than those we had ourselves paid. To add insult to injury, we seem to have been inadequately mindful of the national infrastructure: enjoying shopping malls, to be sure, but building few houses and allowing the transport system to decay. 

The John Kay of the 1980s, transported twenty-five years forward in time, would not be able to afford to buy the house I still live in, would have incurred substantial debt in higher education, would have to make greater provision for his own retirement and would look ahead to a tax burden inevitably rising to meet the costs of an increasingly adverse demography. When Jeff Skilling toasted the capitalisation of energy contracts in champagne, he was celebrating the twin benefits of the prudence of his predecessors and his own imprudence in relation to his successors. And I could join him in that toast. Lucky indeed to have lived through the era of financialisation. (Kindle Locations 4541-4560)

Tuesday, October 4, 2016

G11 - Week 8 - Day 1

In-class work
  1. Exercises 8-18 on page 107 (HL Only)
  2. The Effects of a Per Unit Subsidy
    1. Exercises 19-23 on page 109
  3. Calculating the Effects of a Subsidy using Linear Equations (HL Only)
    1. Exercises 24-34 on page 112
  4. Determining the Effects of Price Ceilings and Price Floors
  5. Calculating the Effects of Price Controls using Linear Equations (HL Only)
    1. Exercises 35-46




Currently Reading

Exodus: How Migration Is Changing Our World
I will refer to the combination of institutions, rules, norms, and organizations of a country as its social model. Even among high-income countries social models differ considerably. America has particularly strong institutions and private organizations, but somewhat weaker public organizations than Europe, and Japan has much stronger norms of trust than either of them. But though they differ in detail, all high-income societies have social models that function remarkably well. Quite possibly, different combinations work well because the components adapt so as to fit each other: for example, institutions and norms may gradually evolve so as to be well suited given the state of narratives and organizations. But such adaptation is not automatic. On the contrary, hundreds of different societies existed for thousands of years before any of them happened upon a social model capable of supporting the ascent to prosperity. Even the Glorious Revolution was not undertaken with the objective of unleashing prosperity: it was triggered by a mixture of religious prejudice and political opportunism. The English social model that emerged in the eighteenth century was replicated and improved in America. This in turn influenced social revolution in France, which exported its new institutions by force of arms across western Europe. The key point I wish to convey is that the present prosperity enjoyed in the Western world, and which is belatedly spreading more widely, is not the outcome of some inevitable march of progress. For thousands of years until the twentieth century ordinary people were poor, everywhere. A high living standard was the privilege of extractive elites rather than the normal reward for productive work. Had it not been for a fortuitous combination of circumstances that relatively recently produced a social model conducive to growth, this dreary state of affairs would most likely have continued. In poor countries it continues still.

If the prosperity of the high-income world rests on this platform, it has crucial implications for migration. Migrants are essentially escaping from countries with dysfunctional social models. It may be well to reread that last sentence and ponder its implications. For example, it might make you a little more wary of the well-intentioned mantra of the need to have “respect for other cultures.” The cultures— or norms and narratives— of poor societies, along with their institutions and organizations, stand suspected of being the primary cause of their poverty. Of course, on criteria other than whether they are conducive to prosperity these cultures may be the equal of, or superior to, the social models of high-income societies. They may be preferable in terms of dignity, humanity, artistic creativity, humor, honor, and virtue. But migrants themselves are voting with their feet in favor of the high-income social model. Recognizing that poor societies are economically dysfunctional is not a license for condescension toward their people: people can as readily earn the right to respect while struggling against a hostile environment as while succeeding in a benign one. But it should put us on our guard against the lazier assertions of multiculturalism: if a decent living standard is something to be valued, then on this criterion not all cultures are equal. (pp. 33-35)

Monday, September 26, 2016

G11 - Week 7 - Day 1

In-class work
  1. Work on ch. 3-4 commentary assessment
  2. Hand in hardcopy by end of class


From the blogosphere

  1. Firms that Discriminate are More Likely to Go Bust
  2. Is Sustained 4 Percent Annual Real Growth Achievable?
    1. “As we noted in our 16 Myths document, the last time the U.S. had 4 percent growth on average for 25 years was 1940-1964. And in the modern context with an aging population and a large percentage of women now already in the labor force, pursuing a number of pro-growth policies mentioned would only achieve about 3 percent real growth at best over the long run. Therefore, it would be very difficult to achieve sustained 4 percent annual real GDP growth.”
  3. These charts prove that the world is getting dramatically better, not worse



Currently Reading

Education for Sustainable Happiness and Well-being

EDUCATION FOR SUSTAINABILITY  
Education for sustainability is more than just a new curriculum. It is about how the content and process of education can be interwoven with real-life contexts to create opportunities for young people to take the lead in building sustainable communities and societies. Peter Senge (2014, p. 325) 
Peter Senge (2014) recounts the story of 12-year-old Analise during a student presentation evening. There were 250 people gathered to hear about the students’ sustainability projects. Analise represented her group and briefly described the wind turbine project that she and her peers had created at their middle school. Installing the wind turbine had involved many of the steps that Zhao (2012) outlined in product-oriented learning, including a presentation to the principal and the town’s mayor, as well as garnering expertise from parents to explore engineering and investment options. The scope of the project itself is impressive. Even more impressive is her wisdom and courage to challenge the adult audience. Senge tells us that once her presentation was finished,  
Analise set aside her notes and standing calmly, some 75 pounds of fierce determination said, “We children are often hearing that ‘you children are the future.’ We don’t agree with that. We don’t have that much time. We need to make changes now. We kids are ready, are you?” (Senge, 2014, p. 328)  
Analise is absolutely right. We need to make changes now. Muddling along with small revisions to curricula here and there is drastically out of step with the pressing need for educators to demonstrate greater leadership in sustainability education. (p. 85)

Friday, September 2, 2016

G11 - Week 3 - Day 3

In-class work
  1. Questions?
  2. Assessment


From the blogosphere
  1. Are universities worth it?
  2. The Future (Probably) Isn't as Scary as You Think


Currently Reading

The Road to Serfdom
"To split or decentralize power is necessarily to reduce the absolute amount of power, and the competitive system is the only system designed to minimize by decentralization the power exercised by man over man." (Kindle Locations 3980-3982).

Friday, August 19, 2016

G11 - Week 1 - Day 3

In-class work
  1. Distribute textbooks
  2. Introduction to your textbook and resources
  3. Read p. 1-8
  4. Economic Systems - Market, Command and Mixed Economies
  5. Positive vs Normative
  6. Scarcity, Opportunity Cost and the PPC
  7. The Law of Increasing Opportunity Cost and the PPC Model


From the blogosphere


Currently Reading

Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty

"The central thesis of this book is that economic growth and prosperity are associated with inclusive economic and political institutions, while extractive institutions typically lead to stagnation and poverty" (p. 85).

Wednesday, March 9, 2016

Two Consequences of "Winner Take All" Societies

Tim Harford — Article — The lost leisure time of our lives
"The economic elites, meanwhile, continue to embody a paradox: all the income gains that Keynes expected and more, but limited leisure. 
The likely reason for that is that, in many careers, it’s hard to break through to the top echelons without putting in long hours. It is not easy to make it to the C-suite on a 20-hour week, no matter how talented one is. And because the income distribution is highly skewed, the stakes are high: working 70 hours a week like it’s 1830 all over again may put you on track for a six-figure bonus, while working 35 hours a week may put you on track for the scrapheap. 
The consequences of all this can emerge in unexpected places. As a recent research paper by economists Lena Edlund, Cecilia Machado and Maria Micaela Sviatschi points out, urban centres in the US were undesirable places to live in the late 1970s and early 1980s. People paid a premium to live in the suburbs and commuted in to the city centres to work. The situation is now reversed. Why? The answer, suggest Edlund and her colleagues, is that affluent people don’t have time to commute any more. They’ll pay more for cramped city-centre apartments if by doing so they can save time."
The above (long) quote is yet another piece of evidence in regards to the direction the world seems to be headed. That is a direction that rewards people at the very edge of their fields in ever smaller numbers, while the rest are automated, outsourced, or otherwise paid very minimal wages due to replaceability.

I see this as having two immediate consequences that all (young) people should be aware of.

First, recognizing that innovation and knowledge creation are likely to continue to garner the highest rewards makes understanding creativity, mastery, and expertise that much more important. If you can't get to the edge of the field through massive time and energy investments in gaining expertise, you will probably be one of the people automated, outsourced, or paid minimally. This is important to know. Choose appropriately how you spend your time and energy.

Second, deciding on what kind of society we should have becomes vastly more critical. If the majority of financial rewards will go to a smaller and smaller percentage of working people, while the majority of working people continue to earn relatively less over time, then creating societal norms around giving back and taking care of the less privileged becomes even more important.

It's a statistical fact that not everyone will be in the one percent regarding intelligence, physical prowess, creativity, or ability to persist on difficult work for decades at a time. For people not born with these outlier abilities through no fault of their own, it seems only right to care for them as a society. After all, it is society that allows the outliers to prosper in the first place, therefore, society should be entitled to many of those rewards.

This makes education aimed at caring, compassion, and inclusivity that results in citizens willing to engage and vote in elections to the benefit of all one of the most pressing issues of our time.

Monday, November 16, 2015

TheMoneyIllusion » Oh no! Another Japanese “recession”.

TheMoneyIllusion » Oh no! Another Japanese “recession”.

Will the press ever learn? Here’s Reuters:
Data released before the Tokyo market opened showed that Japan’s economy slipped back into recession in the July-September quarter, contracting at a 0.8 percent annualised rate, compared with the median estimate for a 0.2 percent contraction.
Last year I had fun mocking press reports of a 2014 “recession” in Japan, which I believe was the 4th in 6 years. And now another. However the more sophisticated press is finally beginning to catch on. Here’s the FT:
Bright and early on Monday morning, expect to hear some gloomy news — that Japan is in recession, for the fourth time in just five years. Doom will be mongered; foes will declare it a fresh blow to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “three arrows” of economic stimulus. And I will not believe a word of it. 
That is not because the cries of recession will be false — even though the unemployment rate is low and falling, the corporate mood is one of cautious optimism and Japan is manifestly not entering a slump. Output is expected to fall by 0.1 per cent in the third quarter after a 0.3 per cent decline the quarter before — and, on the standard definition, two consecutive quarters of contraction equals a recession. 
The trouble is this definition of a recession is anachronistic and misleading. It is an idea that no longer means what we think it does — that is, a significant decline in activity. Even worse, the way we use it causes harm, not just in Japan but also in an increasing number of advanced economies. The R-word needs a rethink. 
Japan keeps entering “recessions” because its population is falling and so the economy has little potential to grow. The Bank of Japan puts trend growth at 0.5 per cent or less, compared with the US Federal Reserve’s estimate of 2 per cent for America.
Actually those are both too high; trend growth is zero in Japan, and 1.2% in the US. But at least the press is starting to figure it out. That’s progress.

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Focus: Or, On Comparative Advantage in Life

“What single activity would keep you fascinated and motivated for the rest of your life?” 
Do you know what that would be? 
It’s not simply sitting on beach, doing nothing. Not for the rest of your life, every day. And it’s not just something that pays well, because we’re assuming you could do anything. And it doesn’t have to be something you already do. There are no rules here at all. 
Think about it.
See more by clicking the link above.

Thursday, October 29, 2015

Apple Should Buy a University

"Apple has more than $205 billion in cash. What should they do with the money? Apple should buy a university and rebuild it from the ground up. 
Apple is a for-profit corporation not a charity but there are plenty of ways to make money from a non-profit university. Aside from the tax breaks and other deductions, Apple University would be a proving ground for educational technologies that would be sold to every other university in the world. New textbooks built for the iPad and its successors would greatly increase the demand for iPads. Apple-designed courses built using online technologies, a.i. tutors, and virtual reality experimental worlds could become the leading form of education worldwide. Big data analytics from Apple University textbooks and courses would lead to new and better ways of teaching. As a new university, Apple could experiment with new ways of organizing degrees and departments and certifying knowledge. Campuses in Delhi, Seoul, Shanghai, Berlin, and Sao Paulo could provide opportunities for studying abroad. Apple’s reputation would attract top students, especially, for example, if it started with a design and business school. Top students would lead Apple University to be highly ranked. The more prestigious Apple University became the greater would be the demand for Apple University educational products.
Apple already has the beginning of this model with iTunes U and its own internal Apple University for training in business and design. By buying a university, Apple would commit to a learning process to develop these technologies in entirely new ways. 
More than a century ago Stanford, Carnegie, and Rockefeller used their industrial-age fortunes to build some of our best universities. Isn’t it time for another great university built for the information age?"

Monday, September 14, 2015

Robert Reich (Ranking Colleges)

Really cool post from Robert Reich on college rankings and what does or not qualify a university to be considered "elite" or highly ranked.

Of personal interest to me as a Californian, the University of California system as a whole had three of the top five schools and four of the top ten. If we add Stanford, California had five of the top ten spots on the recommended Washington Monthly link below!

Robert Reich (Ranking Colleges)
So, with college application season almost upon us, where should aspiring college students and their parents look for advice? 
In my view, not U.S. News and World Report’s annual college guide (out last week).

US New claims its rankings are neutral. Baloney.

We need another guide for ranking colleges – one that doesn’t look at the fatness of alumni wallets or the amount spent on each student, but does take account of economic diversity and dedication to public service. 
Fortunately, there is one. It’s a relatively new one, provided by the Washington Monthly.

Thursday, September 10, 2015

A Response to "How Much Stress Do You Need for Success?"

Scott H. Young recently wrote an article titled “How Much Stress Do You Need for Success?”. In it, he described his thoughts on stress and came to the conclusion,

My sense is that stress is useful to prompt a specific action, to a specific threat, or to promote alertness during a brief period of danger. That’s it. Any stress which doesn’t facilitate these purposes is wasted and therefore any beliefs that stress is necessary must be limited to these contexts.

This seems like a reasonable conclusion until you notice a few things. He never once defines the terms he’s working with. Throughout his article, he constantly interchanges stress with both fear and anxiety and in those senses of the word, his conclusion might be right. Fear and anxiety do seem like excellent mechanisms to prompt action and probably are the main reasons we evolved those emotions.

However, stress is a much larger concept than simply fear or anxiety. They are simply two small subsets of the total concept.1

Stress should be thought of as any stimulus which knocks something (not just humans) out of equilibrium.

From there, it is easy to understand that experiencing disequilibrium can be good or bad depending on context. Having unnecessary anxiety as he mentioned in his article in regards to exams or early morning flights is almost certainly wasted energy.

Another example where a person is knocked from equilibrium is eating food. The act of introducing new contents to the stomach fires up a host of processes within your digestion system, which attempts to bring you back into equilibrium by breaking down the contents and shuttling them to the right places.

So what’s the difference between these types of stresses and what stress should we be seeking?

The first example mentioned above (exams/flights) does not augment your work capacity in any meaningful way. In fact, it can harm your ability to work as your mental focus will be on things out of your control and thereby leave you with less bandwidth to productively attack issues within your control (such as quality sleep in his example).

The second example mentioned above (eating) does augment your work capacity. By eating and digesting food properly, we are left with more energy and the ability to do more work.

And this really gets to the heart of the whole stress “issue”.

“Good” stress, or what Hans Selye referred to as “eustress” in opposition to “distress”, results in positive adaptations that enable increased work capacity, i.e. increased energy.2

“Bad” stress results in maladaptations that decrease work capacity and lower your total energy.

All of this points directly to our answer of when we need stress. We need it any time we are looking to create positive adaptations that enable us to do more work. Period.

So can we find “examples of low-stress, high-achievement individuals”, which would then “put water on the theory that high stress is a prerequisite to accomplishment” as Scott puts it?

Of course.

Just like we can find individuals that are able to squat 500 pounds the first time they walk into a gym. Lifting 500 pounds for any person is an impressive accomplishment, just not one that required stress for that individual. They were genetically gifted and able to accomplish more with less when compared to the average individual.

This is what’s known as the “law of individual differences” within the strength and conditioning community and it is equally apt in Scott’s examples.3

Not all high achieving individuals will need loads of stress to develop adaptations that enable them to achieve great things. Some are simply born with those adaptations or with genetics that allow them to adapt quicker and more with less stress, thereby accelerating them to achievement in half the time another person might need.

So, yes, we need stress. Stress is good. Not all stress as Scott pointed out, but enough of it that when thought about from the correct perspective, should make us seek and chase down the stress that will help us develop the adaptations we need.

Before closing, I’d like to make one thing exceptionally clear. Stress is about adaptations.

Before you ever intentionally induce stress on yourself or others, it’s a good idea to pause and think about the desired adaptations first. If you don’t know the stress required to create the adaptations you want, consult someone with more knowledge (e.g. teachers, coaches, consultants, etc.).

If you are about to induce stress and you haven’t thought about the likely adaptation, pause and give it a think. You may realize that the stress you’re about to exert on yourself is most likely to result in adaptations you don’t even want and it’s therefore a good idea to simply not go through with the activity or experience and find something else more likely to create the adaptations you do want.

I see this problem in schools all the time. As a system, education often induces very high levels of stress in students without really analyzing the likely adaptations.

One maladaptation I’ve seen from this system is that students view work unfavorably. They have the false belief that any and all work is something handed down from someone else and that they will automatically have little interest in it. This seems to create the disposition in students where they avoid any self-created work and attempt to be happy by only engaging in activities that require little energy expenditure, such as hanging out, playing video games, listening to music, or shopping. This is a shame because research shows that we actually gain more fulfillment and enjoyment from activities that require higher levels of engagement.4

Finally, if you are not looking to create new adaptations, you don’t need to induce any stress. However, if you want new abilities, stress will be involved. In fact, by definition, you can’t have “new” without stress.5

Further Reading

Monday, September 7, 2015

Productivity and Pay - The New York Times

Below is a very short and interesting blog from Paul Krugman at the New York Times.

Productivity and Pay - The New York Times


Still in Sydney (next stop Tokyo), where it’s much too beautiful a day to sit inside blogging. But I did want to flag an excellent report by Josh Bivens and Larry Mishel on the productivity-pay gap.

The divergence between pay and productivity — a lot of productivity gains, almost total failure to trickle down — is one of the most striking features of American economics these past 40 (!) years. It’s also the subject of endless attempts at debunking, of claims that the divergence is somehow a statistical artifact. What Bivens and Mishel do is take on these arguments carefully, not dismissing them completely, but showing that they explain only a fraction of what we see. Rising benefits are mainly a pre-1979 issue, explaining almost nothing since then; the “terms of trade” — consumer prices rising faster than the prices of U.S. output — is also mostly pre-1979, and in any case only a fractional concern. And so on.

One thing they don’t say explicitly, but is important: the next time you hear someone claiming that middle-class families have, in fact, seen a big rise in living standards, you should know that to the extent that this is true (which is less than claimed), it’s mainly about working more hours. Pay really has almost stagnated despite rising productivity.


Thursday, August 27, 2015

Chasing Excellence

Below is a long quote from Paul Carter, a strength coach who writes regularly for several magazines and other media outlets. Obviously, the quote is on the topic he's paid to write about (lifting weights), but it applies equally to anything else you do in life. If you're wanting to be excellent at something, there are going to be thousands of hours spent alone doing that thing when no one else is around to give you support.

A popular rule of thumb is 10,000 hours, but that was made famous by one journalist (i.e. Malcolm Gladwell) looking at a few research articles by Anders Ericsson. The real truth is that it depends on the field you're chasing expertise and excellence in. Music and chess will take over double or triple that due to the international level of competition.

I haven't seen numbers for computer programming, but would imagine it's closer to 25,000 hours as well. Other fields are probably fairly easy to get ahead of by devoting as little as a few thousand hours. Naturally, the more obscure and less competitive, the less time will be required.


The reason more time is required for more competitive fields is that it takes more and more experience to separate yourself even a fraction of a percent from the rest over time. You can see this in the graph above. It's typically quite fast to go from zero knowledge or skill to intermediate as shown in the rapid rise of the curve; it takes far longer to continue making incremental progress as the rate of learning slows down.

Since some fields are "winner take all", like music, chess, sports, law, medicine, etc., being even a small fraction of a percent better can get you the majority of success in the field. To truly be the best will therefore require thousands of hours toiling away with only small increases of skill with the hope that it pays off with recognition from society that you truly are the best available in your field.

“The true test of a man's character is what he does when no one is watching.” -- John Wooden 

I read an interesting article this week about a key factor in success, and successful people, is that their will to succeed surpassed that of their need for approval or affirmation by others. 

I have no idea why, but the very first thing that popped in my head, was how often I have read from people that they need training partners, or even a training group. That this was or is a big factor in their success.

This always baffled me. 

I've trained alone for the most part of 26 years. That means I was training a long time before the internet and social media, and all that shit. I never "needed" training partners. I've had a few, and did enjoy it at various times. But I never found that it made a difference in how hard I worked in the slightest. If anything, my 13 year old pushes me harder than anyone else ever has because she always wants to do more work, and doesn't need much rest time between sets. So dad has to work harder to impress his training partner, lest she think he's a lazy bum who is getting outworked by her. 

I'm not saying lots of people haven't been successful because of training partners or even groups, I just find it baffling when someone sees that as a "need" to improve. 

Can you imagine a guy trying to make a college or pro team as a walk on or free agent with the attitude of "I was going to run 100's today, but John can't come so, eh, I don't know." 

That is not the attitude of someone who has a desire to achieve their own personal degree of excellence. 

If there is one thing I've learned over the past few years, it's that your passion and desire to be great at something had better surpass what other people think about you, your efforts, your abilities, and your worth.

I hear guys talking about want to look a certain way, or lift a certain way, then watch them eat shit most of the time, and forget what hard work really looks like in the gym.
Truthfully, I forgot too. Months and months ago I realized my training had become a very comfortable place. Too much complacency. This has happened before. If you're aware enough, you'll know it when it happens to you too. Because you will do all the shit you like to do, the way you like to do it, and have a million excuses as to why you aren't doing the shit that is hard, that you hate.

When the sun sets each day remember, it's about self worth. Which is derived from how you feel about who you are.

And regardless of what someone else says or thinks about you, or your efforts, if you want to be "great" at something, you better do great work when no one else can see it, judge it, or pat you on the back for it.